Adapting to climate change: are you ready?

“Adaptation is the process of adjustment to the current or expected climate and its effects, whether climate variability or extreme climate events. In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or to capitalize on beneficial opportunities”, says the IPCC, the United Nations body responsible for the objective assessment of scientific research on climate change. Why should logistics real estate stakeholders be concerned? “Because it is now part of the European green taxonomy”, notes Ludovic Bernini, fund manager at investor AEW.

A genuine environmental compass for the EU, the green taxonomy was launched by the European Commission in 2018 to steer and mobilize private investment toward climate neutrality over the next 30 years. To ensure the robustness and scientific soundness of this classification, the European Commission tasked a group of independent experts with setting criteria to determine whether the environmental performance of a given economic activity is sufficient to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 and the level of ambition set for 2030. While respecting minimum safeguards for human rights and labor law, an activity may qualify for this “green label” if it makes a substantial contribution to at least one of the six criteria identified by the experts: climate change mitigation, the sustainable use and protection of aquatic and marine resources, the transition to a circular economy, pollution prevention and control, the protection and restoration of biodiversity and ecosystems, and adaptation to climate change. The adaptation approach, which addresses the consequences of climate change, complements mitigation measures aimed at reducing its causes.

In 2024, the French Ministry for Ecological Transition published the third National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (PNACC), which complements the SNBC (National Low-Carbon Strategy). Following a broad national consultation in the style of the “Grenelle” process, the first National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (PNACC) was launched in 2011 for a five-year period. The plan is led by the National Observatory on the Effects of Global Warming (Onerc), a body attached to the Ministry for Ecological Transition and Solidarity, whose main tasks are to collect and disseminate information on the risks associated with global warming and formulate recommendations on adaptation measures to consider in order to limit the impacts of climate change. The plan was conceived as a dynamic, evolving process, shaped as knowledge improves. The evaluation of this first PNACC, conducted in 2016, led to the publication of a second plan (PNACC2) in 2018, and a third in 2024. This plan includes public adaptation policies aimed at anticipating the expected impacts of climate change, limiting their potential damage by acting on the factors that determine their scale (for example, urban development in at-risk areas), and taking advantage of potential opportunities.

However, at the company level, the strategy to adopt cannot be the same as that of a state. “When it comes to reducing our carbon footprint, by installing photovoltaic panels or heat pumps, for example, industry stakeholders are also motivated by energy savings, comments Ludovic Bernini. But when it comes to putting in place very costly facilities, simply in case a risk materializes in 20 or 30 years, it becomes more difficult to find sufficient motivation to take action”. That does not stop logistics real estate stakeholders from seeking solutions, “such as using light-colored waterproofing on roofs and facades to limit heat inside the building, or reducing soil sealing by not paving parking lots, lists Mélanie Cahin, director of innovation, sustainability and projects at Virtuo Industrial Property. We can also size basins for greater retention and infiltration”. For one of the main risks identified in Europe—the increasing temperature range (hotter and hotter summers and colder and colder winters)—the vast majority of companies in the sector are constructing and renovating existing buildings with better insulation than before, more substantial than currently necessary and able to withstand climate change over the next 5 or 10 years. “Beyond that, however, it is a question of finding the right economic balance, explains Nilson Adou, Director of Development and Construction at Logicor France. Who is prepared to fund the additional cost? We have a Sustainability department, managed from London, that ensures the decarbonization of our activities and the provision of products suited to climate challenges… even if the most sensible approach today is to prioritize locations where climate-change-related risks are lowest”. Especially since some clients do not feel sufficiently concerned to accept paying the additional cost of the materials or technologies that could enable this adaptation to climate change.

In the logistics real estate sector, awareness is certainly there, but is therefore still rarely followed by action. “We do, of course, carry out climate change impact studies on our buildings, confirms Anne Vibert, Director at asset manager Invesco. These audits provide us with valuable analysis of potential risks such as flooding, river flooding, rising water levels, drought and extreme weather conditions. However, for existing buildings, we must find innovative and economically viable solutions to manage these risks effectively.”. For the construction of new buildings, stakeholders generally decide not to launch projects in areas where several warning lights are red, knowing that insurers are, in any case, increasingly reluctant to support them. Sometimes, the sticking point comes neither from the investment required to adapt to climate change, nor from the user, nor from insurers… but “from regulations, laments Mélanie Cahin. We are looking for new materials and new technologies that could help reduce the carbon footprint, but these innovations still do not make it possible to comply with ICPE regulations, to which a large proportion of warehouses are subject”.