200% growth in under 10 years: why logistics real estate is booming in Poland

Poland has the advantage of being ideally positioned on the map of Europe. This naturally spurs the development of its logistics sector. In a few figures, the sector accounts for around 5% of national GDP, with more than 400,000 jobs and about 2,500 companies (from SMEs to large corporations). The logistics sector as a whole generates approximately €45 billion in revenue for the Polish economy.

The repercussions have been significant. In fact, 2023 is shaping up to be the year in which Polish GDP growth is at its lowest in 20 years. The latest forecasts project annual growth of less than 0.8%. But economic players remain optimistic. While the first two quarters are expected to be difficult, the situation should improve thereafter, returning to sound growth—above 3%—in 2024.

We are the fastest-growing logistics real estate market in Europe. In 2015, Poland’s total logistics space amounted to 10 million sq. m. By the end of the first quarter of 2020, that figure had risen to 30 million. It is a spectacular performance! There are currently around 3 million sq. m. of logistics space under construction in Poland. Beyond this overall picture, other indicators are also very reassuring. For example, the logistics vacancy rate is just 4%. The average warehouse size is around 10,000 sq. m. or more. Poland’s logistics real estate market is now attractive and mature.

Fundamentally, we must comply with the same European standards as our neighbors. In Poland, as elsewhere in Europe, we are seeing growing consideration for sustainable development issues and ESG criteria. Energy-efficiency and renewable energy-generation solutions are becoming increasingly common at our logistics real estate sites. The authorities take these matters seriously. Numerous studies have been conducted in recent years to anticipate the development of logistics zones in the country. Areas have naturally been designated for logistics and warehousing in order to prevent construction in protected zones. This also makes it easier to obtain building permits. In addition, all major national infrastructure projects (highways, expressways, etc.) have been built in areas that do not harm the environment.

Together with the BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland teams, we are very optimistic about the sector’s future. Not only is the logistics real estate stock growing very quickly, but it now consists of highly modern sites with attractive rents. The market is healthy, the vacancy rate is very low, and growth potential is substantial thanks to a more available and skilled workforce. Our market benefits from the presence of numerous foreign investors from around the world. Logistics players need not worry about possible fluctuations in the local currency, since major investments are made in euros. The same applies to the rental market. Hosting European Logistics Real Estate Day in Warsaw demonstrates this once again: now is the time to invest in Poland.